9/14/2004
Baseball and probability
Today while I was checking out the MAA columns I came across a very interesting article about Statistics and Baseball. It turns out there is this book called Moneyball that talks about how the Oakland A's used statistical analysis to look at players in a new light. By doing this it allowed them to leverage their small budget (compared to other teams) to acquire players that didn't fit the mold of "superstar baseball players".
And this is the kicker: Apparently, once they started doing this, the team started doing better. It seems the analysis they did allowed them to see opportunities that conventional wisdom (and baseball statistical wisdom) would normally overlook.
The article is a very good read. I highly recommend reading it.
Also, there is a line in there that was a minor revelation to me. It said that predicting a win for a football team is hard to do when you are looking at an individual's stats. Football is such a team-oriented sport in that it doesn't matter if you have the greatest QB that ever lived, if the rest of the team doesn't support him, then the team looses. In baseball, almost the opposite is the case: A single stellar player (or a stellar performance by a single player) can benefit the entire team.
This was a minor revelation for me because I've been looking at player stats thinking it would be an indicator of success. And in my fantasy football league it is true that we base our score off of individual performances, if a player is a part of a winning team, that should influence the players value.
Very interesting. I have much thinking to do. Especially since my team lost its first matchup this week. :)
And this is the kicker: Apparently, once they started doing this, the team started doing better. It seems the analysis they did allowed them to see opportunities that conventional wisdom (and baseball statistical wisdom) would normally overlook.
The article is a very good read. I highly recommend reading it.
Also, there is a line in there that was a minor revelation to me. It said that predicting a win for a football team is hard to do when you are looking at an individual's stats. Football is such a team-oriented sport in that it doesn't matter if you have the greatest QB that ever lived, if the rest of the team doesn't support him, then the team looses. In baseball, almost the opposite is the case: A single stellar player (or a stellar performance by a single player) can benefit the entire team.
This was a minor revelation for me because I've been looking at player stats thinking it would be an indicator of success. And in my fantasy football league it is true that we base our score off of individual performances, if a player is a part of a winning team, that should influence the players value.
Very interesting. I have much thinking to do. Especially since my team lost its first matchup this week. :)
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